Thursday: Travel Day

As a reminder: NAR Existing Home Sales Report vs. Tom Lawler's LEHC Projection from Last Week

Existing Home Sales (SAAR): NAR, 5.39 million; LEHC, 5.41 million; “Consensus”, 5.52 million

Inventory of EHS for Sale: NAR, 2.13 million; LEHC, 2.14 million.

YOY % Change, Median Existing SF Home Sales Price: NAR, 5.4%; LEHC, 5.3%.

Note: Thursday is a travel day - no posting until later in the day.

Thursday:
At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 265 thousand initial claims, up from 262 thousand the previous week.

Also at 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 3.7% increase in durable goods orders.

At 11:00 AM, Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.

from
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/ZMEflopY_2E/thursday-travel-day.html

Existing Home Sales decline in July to 5.39 million SAAR

CR Note: I'm in NYC and I will post graphs when I return home.

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Lose Steam in July

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million in July from 5.57 million in June. For only the second time in the last 21 months 2, sales are now below (1.6 percent) a year ago (5.48 million).

Total housing inventory at the end of July inched 0.9 percent higher to 2.13 million existing homes available for sale, but is still 5.8 percent lower than a year ago (2.26 million) and has now declined year-over-year for 14 straight months. Unsold inventory is at a 4.7-month supply at the current sales pace, which is up from 4.5 months in June.

Sales in July (5.39 million SAAR) were 3.2% lower than last month, and were 1.6% below the July 2015 rate.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 2.13 million in July from 2.11 million in June.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

Inventory decreased 5.8% year-over-year in July compared to July 2015.  

Months of supply was at 4.7 months in July.

This was below consensus expectations (but not a surprise for CR readers). For existing home sales, a key number is inventory - and inventory is still low. I'll have more after I return home.

from
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/LeL2w05_fqk/existing-home-sales-decline-in-july-to.html

6 Ways To Win A Bidding War Without Overspending

When you hear “bidding war,” visions of rapid-fire auction chanting might come to mind: One dollar bid, now two, now two, will you give me two … sold! This sort of bidding war at auctions is all about the dollars. But when you enter a bidding war for a home, other factors besides money can […]

The post 6 Ways To Win A Bidding War Without Overspending appeared first on Trulia's Blog.

from
http://www.trulia.com/blog/win-bidding-war-without-overspending/

MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"

CR Note: I'm in NYC, graphs will be posted next week.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 2.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 19, 2016.

... The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to 3.67 percent from 3.64 percent, with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.31 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

from
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/TZsIWElt9Ls/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in_24.html

Wednesday: Existing Home Sales

Note: I'm in New York and posting will not be frequent (too much to do and see).

Thanks to Joe Weisenthal for having me on Bloomberg's WDYM. And Barry Ritholtz on his MIB radio and podcast.

Wednesday:
At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for June 2016. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.  The consensus is for a 0.3% month-to-month increase for this index.

At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for July from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.52 million SAAR, down from 5.57 million in June.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 5.41 million SAAR in July, down 2.9% from June’s preliminary pace.

Hint: Lawler isn't always closer, but I'd take the under on the consensus Wednesday.

from
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/UK0mi9jvXTc/wednesday-existing-home-sales.html

Chemical Activity Barometer "Suggests Accelerated Business Activity"

Here is an indicator that I'm following that appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.

From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Suggests Accelerated Business Activity; Notches Sixth Consecutive Gain

The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), expanded 0.4 percent in August following an upward revision for July. This marks the barometer’s sixth consecutive monthly gain. Accounting for adjustments, the CAB is up 3.2 percent over this time last year, the strongest year over year growth since January 2015. All data is measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). On an unadjusted basis the CAB climbed 0.3 percent in August, following a 0.6 percent jump in July.

"The CAB is signaling higher, and possibly accelerating, U.S. business activity into 2017. The services sectors have begun to improve and likely accelerated during recent months, and manufacturing appears to be gathering momentum," said ACC’s Chief Economist Kevin Swift.
emphasis added

Currently CAB has increased over the last three months, and this suggests an increase in Industrial Production over the next year.

from
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/ld8ij4MS4uM/chemical-activity-barometer-suggests.html

How To Sell A Tenant-Occupied Property

Scenario: You’re ready to give up on the landlord business, or maybe you just want to unload one of your investment properties. You own the apartment in Boston, MA, so you can sell it and move on, right? It’s not always that easy. Deciding to sell a house that someone else calls home — a tenant-occupied […]

The post How To Sell A Tenant-Occupied Property appeared first on Trulia's Blog.

from
http://www.trulia.com/blog/how-to-sell-a-tenant-occupied-property/