MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 21, 2016. The prior week’s results included an adjustment for the Columbus Day holiday.

... The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week to its lowest level since June 2016. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier to its lowest level since January 2016. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to 3.71 percent from 3.73 percent, with points increasing to 0.37 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Refinance activity increased this year since rates declined, however, since rates are up a little recently, refinance activity has declined a little.


The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

The purchase index was "9 percent higher than the same week one year ago".

from
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/O6lF0okQ4PE/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in_26.html

Wednesday: New Home Sales

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Stuck at Highs For Now

Mortgage Rates were unchanged in many cases today, with a handful of lenders inconsequentially better or worse versus yesterday's latest offerings [at 3.55% for 30 year fixed]. Despite moving lower on 4 out of the past 6 days, rates were never able to put meaningful distance between themselves and the highest levels in more than 4 months.
emphasis added

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a decrease in sales to 600 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in September from 609 thousand in August.

from
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/7DGUhGGAA2c/wednesday-new-home-sales.html

Pawesome! 4 Pet-Friendly Apartments For Rent

For those of us who consider our furry friends family, the apartment hunt can be heartbreaking thanks to three little words: No dogs allowed. The good news? More and more developments are embracing pups and pooches, with incredible amenities ranging from convenient (on-site dog washes) to just plain cool (a dog park on the roof!). […]

The post Pawesome! 4 Pet-Friendly Apartments For Rent appeared first on Trulia's Blog.

from
https://www.trulia.com/blog/pet-friendly-apartments-for-rent/

Charmed! 12 Tiny Homes For Sale In The Mountains

One thing we’ve learned from the tiny-home movement is that if you’re going to go small inside, you should maximize your living space outside. One way to do that? Plant yourself smack-dab in the middle of nature. These tiny mountain houses currently for sale make up for what they lack in square footage with amazing […]

The post Charmed! 12 Tiny Homes For Sale In The Mountains appeared first on Trulia's Blog.

from
https://www.trulia.com/blog/tiny-mountain-houses-for-sale/

Chemical Activity Barometer indicated Solid Growth in October

Here is an indicator that I'm following that appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.

From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Enters Third Quarter with Strong Performance

The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), notched another solid gain of 0.3 percent in October, following an upwardly revised gain of 0.4 percent in September. Accounting for adjustments, the CAB is up 4.2 percent over this time last year, a marked increase over earlier comparisons and the greatest year-over-year gain since August 2014. All data is measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). On an unadjusted basis the CAB climbed 0.3 percent in October, following a 0.4 percent gain in September.
...
Applying the CAB back to 1912, it has been shown to provide a lead of two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2012 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the 3-month moving average for the Chemical Activity Barometer compared to Industrial Production.  It does appear that CAB (red) generally leads Industrial Production (blue).

Currently CAB has increased solidly over the last several months, and this suggests an increase in Industrial Production over the next year.

from
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/AUWPOTXEozQ/chemical-activity-barometer-indicated.html

Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in August

Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.3% year-over-year in August

The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now around 5%. In August, the index was up 5.3% YoY.

In the earlier post, I graphed nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $275,000 today adjusted for inflation (37%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation).

It has been almost ten years since the bubble peak.  In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the National Index was reported as being only 1.6% below the bubble peak (seasonally adjusted).   However, in real terms, the National index is still about 16.2% below the bubble peak.

Nominal House Prices

The first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA, and the CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through August) in nominal terms as reported.

In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is back to December 2005 levels, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to June 2005 levels, and the CoreLogic index (NSA) is back to August 2005.

Real House Prices

The second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.

CPI less Shelter has declined over the last two years pushing up real house prices.

In real terms, the National index is back to February 2004 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to October 2003, and the CoreLogic index back to January 2004.

In real terms, house prices are back to late 2003 / early 2004 levels.

Price-to-Rent

In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value. Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price index and the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) from the BLS.

Here is a similar graph using the Case-Shiller National, Composite 20 and CoreLogic House Price Indexes.

This graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 1998 = 1.0).

On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to August 2003 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to April 2003 levels, and the CoreLogic index is back to July 2003.

In real terms, and as a price-to-rent ratio, prices are back to late 2003  - and the price-to-rent ratio maybe moving a little more sideways now.

from
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/KF0evMs0Ug8/real-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in.html

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.3% year-over-year in August

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3 month average of June, July and August prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Price Gains Continues in August According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.3% annual gain in August, up from 5.0% last month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.3% annual increase, up from 4.1% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.1%, up from 5.0% in July.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.5% in August. Both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.4% increase in August. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.6% month-over-month increase, and both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite reported 0.2% month-over-month increases. After seasonal adjustment, 14 cities saw prices rise, two cities were unchanged, and four cities experienced negative monthly prices changes.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 10.9% from the peak, and up 0.2% in August (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 8.9% from the peak, and up 0.2% (SA) in August.

The National index is off 1.6% from the peak (SA), and up 0.6% (SA) in August.  The National index is up 33.0% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 4.3% compared to August 2015.

The Composite 20 SA is up 5.1% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 5.3% year-over-year.

Note: According to the data, prices increased in 15 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

I'll have more later.

from
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/p-NGbXGRfJ4/case-shiller-national-house-price-index.html