Payroll Employment: Best Years, Worst Month

A couple of years ago - when there was a disappointing jobs report - I called out the people calling it a "disaster".

Here is my post from 2014: Payroll Employment: Best Years, Worst Month

In that post I noted that there were strong employment years with some weak employment months.  Sure enough, 2014 saw strong employment growth of over 3 million jobs.  Some "disaster"!

Other examples: In 1983, there was a month with 308 thousand jobs lost - but it was a strong year for employment gains.  Or 1997, another strong year, with 31 thousand jobs lost in one month.

Job growth has slowed so far in 2016, but I still think we will see over 2 million jobs added this year.

Here is a table of the best years for job growth since 1980 with the worst month of the year (this is after revisions).  Obviously there is a significant amount of volatility month-to-month in the employment report.

Non-Farm Payroll: Best Years, Worst Month
Year	Annual (000s)	Worst Month (000s)
1984	3,880	128
1994	3,852	200
1983	3,458	-308
1997	3,407	-31
1988	3,242	94
1999	3,179	107
1987	3,153	171
1998	3,047	129
2014	3,015	168
1996	2,825	-19
1993	2,816	-49
2015	2,744	84
2005	2,514	68
1985	2,502	124
2013	2,311	45
1995	2,158	-15
2012	2,149	75
2006	2,092	4
2011	2,087	42
2004	2,042	44
2000	1,951	-47
1989	1,943	40
1986	1,902	-94
20161	1,795	38
12016 is the hiring pace through May.

from
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/MKP3MaCEXaU/payroll-employment-best-years-worst.html