Based on publicly-available state and local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.49 million in August, up 1.9% from July’s preliminary pace and up 3.8% from last August’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales last month should register a significantly larger YOY increase than seasonally adjusted sales, as there were two more business days this August compared to last August.
Local realtor/MLS data also suggest that existing home listings in aggregate declined slightly last month, and I project that the inventory of existing homes for sale as estimated by the NAR for the end of August will be 2.11 million, down 0.9% from July’s preliminary estimate and down 7.0% from last August.. Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the NAR’s estimate of the median existing single-family home sales price for August will be up about 6.3% from last August.
CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release August existing home sales on Thursday, September 22nd. The consensus is for 5.39 million SAAR in August. Take the over!
from
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/ZUyhYwqS76w/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html
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