Based on publicly-available state and local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that May existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.55 million in May, up 1.8% from April’s preliminary pace and up 4.9% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a slightly higher YOY % gain, reflecting this May’s higher business-day count.
Local realtor/MLS data also suggest that existing home listings increased only slightly on the month (and by less than last May’s MoM gain), and I project that the inventory of existing homes for sale as estimated by the NAR for the end of May will be 2.16 million, up 0.9% from April’s preliminary estimate and down 5.3% from last May. Finally, I project that the NAR’s estimate of the median existing single-family home sales price for May will be up 5.3% YOY.
CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release May Existing Home sales next Wednesday, and the early consensus is 5.64 million SAAR (probably too high).
from
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/WawmZo2q8dI/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html
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